THIS IS IT!! - Any Guesses on my finish time?

Nearly 2 months of running and this is what it all comes down to. I must admit though that, it almost seems like I just started training yesterday . And no matter how anxious I am, to get to that start line of the Carlsbad Half Marathon as soon as possible, there is a small part of me that always feels that maybe if I had trained a little more, I'd cut a minute or two more... oh that little minute that seems so tiny otherwise... seems golden on the race.

Come to think of it, that wasn't bad at all... 2 short runs a week and one long run on the weekend?... almost seems like I could do this all the time and more importantly, almost seems like there should be ABSOLUTELY NO REASON FOR ANYONE TO NOT DO IT!

Alright... being an Engineer... I feel a need to explain analytically, quantitatively and logically, every statement I make or theory I propose. So, here's a summary of what I had to do, to feel confident enough, to go do this (hopefully you'll be in agreement with me, after you read it)

SUMMARY
=========

Total training time from the time I officially decide to start training: 2 months (Nov 22nd, 2008 to Jan 22nd, 2009)
Total Distance Run during training (not including the half): ~140miles.
Total Time commitment per week: 1hr on Tue + 1hr on Thu + 2 hrs on Sat = 4Hrs/ week.
Total time spent training: 4*8 = 32Hrs
Target: Since this is my first half marathon (or first long distance running event for that matter), I started out with the aim of finishing, then slowly progressed towards a more and more aggressive pace... finally ending with a hope of a close to 2 hour finish

NOTE: I wasn't absolutely sedentary before I "officially" started training... but, I only ran once a week and restricted myself to under 6 miles for the most part. Also, I have to mention, having the best running group of friends (~15 of who will be running alongside me this Sunday) was a huge part of making this seem like nothing.


DETAILED RUN DATA
===================


DAY | DISTANCE | TIME | PACE
==============================================================
Sat (11/22) ~7.5mi ~1:02hrs ~8:30 (Not Accurate)
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Tue (12/2) ~5.5mi ~46min ~8:36 (Not Accurate)
Thu (12/4) ~3.5mi ~27min ~7:70 (Fartleks)
Sat (12/6) ~9.35mi ~1:27 ~9:20 (Fairly Accurate)
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Tue (12/9) ~5.5mi ~55min ~10:00 (Did this slow, intentionally)
Thu (12/11) ~4.0mi ~32min ~8:00 (Fartleks)
Sat (12/13) ~10mi ~1:35 ~9:30 (Fairly Accurate)
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Tue (12/16) ~5.5mi ~48min ~8:45 (Fairly Accurate)
Thu (12/18) ~4.5mi ~40min ~8:50 (Fairly accurate, Hill Training in cold)
Sat (12/20) ~9.2mi ~1:27 ~9:30 (Crappiest long run on record, shins hurt from get-go :( )
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Wed (12/24) ~5mi ~45min ~9:00 (Accurate, shins were still hurting)
Sun (12/28) ~9mi ~1:25 ~9:20 (Accurate with some hills, shins feeling better)
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Wed (12/31) ~6mi ~48.5min ~8:05 (Accurate and FAST, shins recovered!)
Sun (1/4) ~11mi ~1:38 ~8:54 (Accurate, with some hills)
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Wed (1/7) ~4mi ~40min ~10:00 (intentionally slow, was a recovery run from Sunday's 11miler)
Fri (1/9) ~3mi ~24min ~8:00 (Fartleks on the treadmill)
Sun (1/11) ~11.6mi ~1:50 ~9:30 (took it easy 'coz I wasn't feeling a 100%, due to the flu symptoms)
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Tue (1/13) ~2mi ~20min ~10:00 (Slow paced recovery run, after sunday's 12 miler)
Thu (1/15) ~5.0mi ~41min ~8:10 (Fartleks)
Sat (1/17) ~7.4mi ~1:04 ~8:30 (Fairly Accurate)
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Tue (1/20) ~6.2mi ~50min ~8:05 (Ran this faster than I wanted to, or intended to)
Thu (1/22) ~3.5mi ~32min ~9:10 (Slow paced final training run)
Sat (1/25) - TBD (CARLSBAD HALF MARATHON 2009!!!)
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Well... let's see how accurate a reflection, my final race day time is, of my training runs.

Any guesses on my finish time? (leave a comment)

Hopefully I have done my part in getting some of you to put that pair on and head out!